Key insights

• ⚠️ Staying below 2 degrees Celsius of warming requires deployable negative emissions technology, which is currently unproven.
• ⏬ Best case scenario is 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming. Staying below 2 degrees Celsius requires deployable negative emissions technology. Current negative emissions technology needs to be tested at a global scale to make a significant impact.
• ❓ There's uncertainty about the trustworthiness of the technology.
• ⛔ Two degrees of warming is considered a threshold for catastrophe and could lead to lethal conditions in many cities.
• 🔥 Cities in South Asia and the Middle East could become lethally hot in summer at two degrees, potentially affecting millions of people.
• 🏝️ Island nations are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise at two degrees and could face catastrophic consequences.
• 🌍 The UN expects up to 200 million climate refugees by 2050, with some estimates reaching one billion, which raises concerns about mass displacement.
• 🚨 Anticipation of a refugee crisis 100 times larger, nations retreating from commitments and embracing xenophobia, nativism, and nationalism.

Q&A

• What is the potential risk associated with high carbon levels and cloud formation?

  High carbon levels could disrupt the system for cloud formation, potentially leading to an increase in temperature that could make much of the planet uninhabitable, even in the mid latitudes. A study suggests that reaching 1,200 parts per million of carbon could add 8 degrees Celsius of warming to the system. The range of possibilities for climate outcomes is alarming, with even optimistic outcomes described as horrifying, intensifying the impact on climate.

• How could feedback loops exacerbate climate change?

  Feedback loops in the climate system, such as the albedo effect and methane release from melting permafrost in the Arctic, could accelerate warming beyond human action. The albedo effect causes less reflective white ice at the Arctic, leading to increased absorption of sunlight. Additionally, melting permafrost in the Arctic could release methane, a potent greenhouse gas, potentially doubling the concentration of carbon in the atmosphere.

• What are the projected impacts of failing to address climate change?

  Failing to address climate change could lead to a catastrophic 4.3 degrees Celsius of warming and an estimated $600 trillion in global climate damages by the end of the century. Urgent action and a serious consideration of scientific warnings are necessary to avoid complacency.

• How might climate change impact global politics and migration?

  The anticipation of a refugee crisis 100 times larger than the Syrian refugee crisis, if not addressed adequately, could destabilize global politics. This may lead to nations retreating from commitments, embracing xenophobia, nativism, and nationalism. The consequences could worsen with continued burning of coal and production of fossil fuel emissions. The Syrian refugee crisis significantly impacted global politics and led to Brexit.

• What are the consequences of reaching two degrees Celsius of warming?

  Two degrees of warming is considered a threshold for catastrophe, potentially leading to lethal conditions in many cities, particularly in South Asia and the Middle East. It could also result in the displacement of millions of people, including climate refugees. Island nations are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise at two degrees, facing catastrophic consequences.

• What are the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems?

  Climate change could lead to deformed, damaged, and transformed ecosystems, impacting biodiversity and ecological balance. Staying below 2 degrees Celsius of warming requires deployable negative emissions technology, which is currently unproven.

• 00:03 Climate change will dramatically impact all life on Earth in the decades ahead, with potential deformed, damaged, and transformed ecosystems. Staying below 2 degrees Celsius of warming requires deployable negative emissions technology, which is currently unproven.
• 01:07 The world is on track for a catastrophic level of warming at two degrees, which could lead to lethal conditions in many cities and the displacement of millions of people as climate refugees by 2050.
• 02:10 The Syrian refugee crisis had a significant impact on global politics and led to Brexit. A much larger crisis is expected in the future, and nations retreating from commitments may worsen the situation.
• 03:17 The current trajectory could lead to 4.3 degrees Celsius of warming and $600 trillion in damages by the end of the century. It's crucial to take the science seriously and act to avoid complacency.
• 04:28 Climate change could be accelerated beyond human action through feedback loops such as the albedo effect and methane release from melting permafrost in the Arctic.
• 05:42 The planet is at risk of completely disrupting the system for cloud formation due to high carbon levels, leading to an increase in temperature that could make much of the planet uninhabitable. Even optimistic outcomes are horrifying as the impact on climate intensifies.