Key insights

• 💼 Noticed a market downturn on July 11th, became increasingly bearish and made money on puts
• 📉 Had a hypothesis about a market rally and referenced the 'Nike Swoosh' trend since November 2022
• 📈 Bearish thesis into July was based on Powell not teeing up a rate cut and expectations of bad earnings
• 📊 Explained why their bearish thesis was wrong, including Powell's rate cut and positive earnings
• 💰 Discussed small cap exposure and offered a coupon for their courses
• 💸 Discussed making money on trading, experiencing losses due to wrong predictions
• 🔍 Analyzed future market trends and considered valuations and profitability before the election
• 📈 Market experiencing increased volatility due to election pricing, investable cash at record lows

Q&A

• What advice did Kevin give to avoid the recession?

  Kevin advises against exposing yourself to small caps with high recession risk, suggests increasing cash reserves, insulating your job, acquiring more skills, reducing expenses, and emphasizes the importance of staying safe and avoiding the recession.

• What risks have contributed to the market selloff?

  Geopolitical risks have contributed to the market selloff, and there's a prediction that the Nike Swoosh trend may die before the election if not in recession.

• What factors indicate potential market downturn before the election?

  Increased volatility due to election pricing, record lows in investable cash, yield curve inversion indicating potential recession, and potential profitability in short or inverse trades are contributing factors.

• What considerations were discussed before the election?

  The video discussed analyzing future market trends, valuations, profitability, and potential impact before the election.

• What market trend has the speaker referenced since November 2022?

  The speaker referenced the 'Nike Swoosh' trend since November 2022.

• What contributed to the speaker's bearish thesis being wrong?

  The bearish thesis was proven wrong by Powell teeing up a rate cut and positive earnings, leading to doubt in the bearish outlook.

• How did the speaker make money?

  The speaker made money on puts by being increasingly bearish on the market.

• What did the speaker notice on July 11th?

  The speaker noticed a market downturn on July 11th, leading to a bearish outlook on the market.

• 00:00 The speaker noticed a market downturn on July 11th, became increasingly bearish, made money on puts, had a hypothesis about a market rally, and referenced the 'Nike Swoosh' trend since November 2022.
• 02:41 The speaker explains why their bearish thesis was wrong, including Powell's rate cut and positive earnings. They also discuss small cap exposure and offer a coupon for their courses.
• 05:09 The video discusses making money on trading, experiencing losses due to wrong predictions, analyzing future market trends, and considering valuations and profitability before the election.
• 08:00 Market is experiencing increased volatility due to election pricing, investable cash is at record lows, yield curve inversion indicates potential recession, considering short or inverse trades may be profitable, potential for market downturn before the election.
• 11:08 Geopolitical risks contributing to market selloff, prediction of Nike Swoosh trend dying before election, commitment to course members, adaptation to market, dissatisfaction with current trend and trades.
• 13:50 Kevin advises against exposing yourself to small caps with high recession risk, suggests increasing cash, insulating your job, acquiring more skills and reducing expenses, and extends a coupon code for course membership. He emphasizes the importance of being safe and avoiding the recession.