Key insights

• ⚛️ Energy balance at the top of the atmosphere influences Earth's climate
• 🌡️ Addition of heat trapping gases leads to warming
• 🔍 Evidence shows planet is absorbing heat despite claims of global warming hiatus
• ⏸️ Slowdown in atmospheric warming over the past decade and a half is referred to as the hiatus
• 🔄 Other factors contribute to the slowdown in warming over shorter periods
• 🌎 Global surface temperature changes over the past three decades are influenced by the El Nino cycle
• 🌊 El Nino leads to heat storage in the western Pacific and release in the eastern Pacific over a few years
• ❄️ El Nino years tend to be hot, and recent years have been dominated by the cool phase of the cycle
• 🌡️ El Nino doesn't explain all the variations in global warming
• 🌋 Cooling periods in the eighties and nineties were caused by major volcanic eruptions
• 🌫️ Increase in the number of small volcanic eruptions has offset some greenhouse warming
• ☀️ Solar cycle variations, including a weak sunspot cycle, have also contributed to offsetting warming
• 🏭 Rapid industrialization in Asia has led to more particulate pollution, which has a cooling effect
• 🌨️ Arctic warming is not included in global temperature calculation, leading to an underestimation of the rate of warming
• 📊 Climate models predict faster warming than observed in the short term
• 📈 Adding global temperature estimates and other influences like El Nino, volcanoes, weak sun, and pollution into the models improves agreement with observations
• 📉 The slowdown in warming doesn't undermine the models
• 🔄 The hiatus in global warming does not disprove the role of CO2 in global warming
• 🌍 Climate science acknowledges that CO2 is not the only factor affecting temperature
• 🔍 The myths surrounding the hiatus attempt to draw attention away from the big picture of human-caused global warming

Q&A

• Does the hiatus in global warming disprove the role of CO2 in global warming?

  The hiatus in global warming does not disprove the role of CO2 in global warming. Climate science acknowledges that CO2 is not the only factor affecting temperature, and the hiatus is a complex issue with multiple influencing factors.

• Do climate models account for the slowdown in global warming?

  Climate models predict faster warming than observed in the short term, but when global temperature estimates and other influences like El Nino, volcanoes, weak sun, and pollution are factored in, the agreement is good. The slowdown in warming doesn't undermine the models, but it has led to various myths.

• How have factors like volcanic eruptions, solar cycle variations, and pollution affected the rate of global warming?

  Volcanic eruptions, small eruptions, and solar cycle variations, along with pollution and particulate matter from rapid industrialization, have had a cooling effect, leading to an underestimation of the rate of warming despite the continued growth of greenhouse gases.

• What are the other factors contributing to the slowdown in global warming over shorter periods?

  In addition to the El Nino cycle, other factors affecting the atmosphere over shorter periods, such as volcanic eruptions, small eruptions, and solar cycle variations, contribute to the slowdown in warming.

• How does the El Nino cycle affect global surface temperature?

  The El Nino cycle causes heat to be stored in the Pacific Ocean and released to the atmosphere, leading to significant changes in global surface temperature. Recent years have been dominated by the cool phase of the cycle.

• What is causing the slowdown in global warming often referred to as the hiatus?

  The slowdown in global warming is influenced by factors such as volcanic eruptions, small eruptions, solar cycle variations, and the El Nino cycle, in addition to other atmospheric variations over shorter periods.

• 00:11 The Earth's climate is influenced by the energy balance at the top of the atmosphere, and the addition of heat trapping gases has caused warming. Despite evidence of heat absorption, some claim that global warming has stopped due to a slowdown in atmospheric warming over the past decade and a half, often referred to as the hiatus. There are other factors affecting the atmosphere over shorter periods that contribute to the slowdown in warming.
• 01:11 The global surface temperature has big changes due to factors like the El Nino cycle, which causes heat to be stored in the Pacific Ocean and released to the atmosphere. Recent years have been dominated by the cool phase of the cycle.
• 02:08 The slowdown in global warming is influenced by factors such as volcanic eruptions, small eruptions, and solar cycle variations, in addition to El Nino.
• 03:09 Greenhouse gases have continued to grow, but volcanoes, the weak sun, and pollution have had a cooling effect, leading to an underestimation of the rate of warming.
• 04:06 Climate models predict faster warming than observed in the short term, but when global temperature estimates and other influences are factored in, the agreement is good. The slowdown in warming doesn't undermine the models, but it has led to various myths.
• 05:08 The hiatus in global warming does not disprove the role of CO2 in global warming; it's a complex issue with multiple factors influencing temperature.