Key insights

• ⬆️ Bitcoin's ROI from the low is currently below the last two cycles, with the potential for upward movement in late October based on historical data
• ⚖️ Bitcoin's movement is uncertain, with a possibility for a push later in October, while there's a potential for ethUSD to drop in Q4, emphasizing the importance of hedging
• 📈 Comparing the dollar movement in 2016 and 2024, Bitcoin's consolidation, potential impact of macroeconomics, historical Q4 Bitcoin performance, and potential scenarios for Bitcoin in Q4
• 🔄 Bitcoin's Q4 performance may not derail the cycle, with potential scenarios of a rally and continuation or following Ethereum's downward trend, and a potential further low before an upward trend based on a 2019 comparison
• 📉 Bitcoin's performance is influenced by various factors such as unemployment rate, liquidity in the altcoin market, and market sentiment, with a slightly bearish bias over seven months, aligning it with prior cycles
• ❗️ Bitcoin's ROI after the halving is disappointing, possibly due to ETF demand, liquidity, and macro uncertainties, emphasizing the importance of diversification and the uncertain market outlook for Q4

Q&A

• What are the reasons behind Bitcoin's disappointing ROI since the halving, and what is the market outlook in relation to potential rallies or sell-offs in Q4?

  Bitcoin's ROI since the halving has been disappointing, possibly due to ETF demand, liquidity, and macro uncertainties. The market outlook is uncertain with potential for a Q4 rally or a further sell-off, emphasizing the importance of balancing bullish and bearish perspectives in the current market.

• What factors influence Bitcoin's performance, and why is it important to prioritize price action over indicators?

  Bitcoin's performance is influenced by factors such as unemployment rate, altcoin market liquidity, and market sentiment. Prioritizing price action over indicators is important as it provides a more accurate representation of the market's behavior.

• How might Bitcoin's performance in Q4 impact the market, and what are the potential scenarios for Bitcoin's future performance?

  Bitcoin's performance in Q4 could impact the market, but it may not derail the overall cycle. Two potential scenarios for Bitcoin's future performance are a rally and continuation, or following Ethereum's downward trend, with a 2019 comparison suggesting a possible further low before an upward trend.

• What are the key points to consider when comparing the dollar movement and Bitcoin's consolidation patterns?

  When comparing the dollar movement in 2016 and 2024 to Bitcoin's consolidation patterns, it's essential to consider the potential impact of macroeconomics, historical Q4 Bitcoin performance, and potential scenarios for Bitcoin in Q4.

• What factors suggest the uncertainty of Bitcoin's movement and the importance of hedging in Q4?

  The uncertain movement of Bitcoin, the possibility of ethUSD dropping in Q4, and the comparison between 2016 Q4 movement of Bitcoin and Ethereum indicate a potential similar scenario, emphasizing the significance of hedging.

• What does historical data suggest about potential upward movement in late October for the Bitcoin market?

  Historical data suggests the potential for upward movement in late October for the Bitcoin market based on previous years' trends in Q4.

• What can we learn from measuring Bitcoin's ROI at different points in its market cycles?

  Bitcoin's ROI can be measured from various points such as the low in 2022, the peak in 2021, and the halving earlier this year, providing different perspectives on its performance and potential trends.

• 00:00 Bitcoin's ROI can be measured from different points in its market cycles: the low in 2022, the peak in 2021, and the halving earlier this year. Bitcoin has developed major lows near the end of midterm years, and its ROI tends to get back in line with prior cycles after rally periods. Despite getting ahead of schedule earlier this year, Bitcoin's ROI from the low is currently below the last two cycles. The market is yet to show a strong move in Q4, but historical data suggests potential upward movement in late October.
• 05:04 Bitcoin's movement is uncertain, with potential for a push later in October. There's a possibility of ethUSD dropping in Q4, leading to the importance of hedging. Comparison between 2016 Q4 movement of Bitcoin and Ethereum indicates a potential similar scenario, with the dollar's impact on relative weakness by eth against Bitcoin.
• 10:21 Comparing the dollar movement in 2016 and 2024, Bitcoin's consolidation, potential impact of macroeconomics, historical Q4 Bitcoin performance, and potential scenarios for Bitcoin in Q4.
• 15:42 Bitcoin's performance in Q4 could impact the market, but it may not derail the overall cycle. Comparisons to previous cycles show Bitcoin is currently ahead. Two potential scenarios for Bitcoin's future performance are a rally and continuation, or following Ethereum's downward trend. 2019 comparison suggests a possible further low before an upward trend.
• 20:53 Bitcoin's performance is influenced by various factors such as unemployment rate, liquidity in the altcoin market, and market sentiment. It has gone sideways with a slightly bearish bias for seven months, which puts it back in line with the prior cycles. Tracking its performance from the low or peak provides different perspectives, and it's important to consider price action over indicators.
• 25:43 Bitcoin's ROI since the halving has been disappointing, possibly due to ETF demand, liquidity, and macro uncertainties. Diversification is important as S&P has been rising while Bitcoin has been trending down. Market outlook is uncertain with potential for a Q4 rally or a further sell-off. Balancing bullish and bearish perspectives is crucial in the current market.