Key insights

• ⚖️ The altcoin Reckoning is the ongoing devaluation of altcoins against Bitcoin on their Bitcoin pairs.
• 📉 Historical data suggests that lower interest rates by the FED and a shift from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing marked the end of the altcoin Reckoning in the past, which has not yet occurred in the current market.
• 💹 Individual altcoins' performance does not negate the overall trend of devaluation of altcoins against Bitcoin.
• 📈 Critics who claimed the altcoin market had already bottomed against Bitcoin have been proven wrong as altcoins continue to put in new lows against Bitcoin.
• 📉 Bitcoin and several altcoins are continually establishing new lows against Bitcoin, The pattern of new lows followed by a temporary bounce is similar to the last cycle.
• 🌞 Historical trends suggest that altcoins may experience a substantial decline in their Bitcoin valuations during the summer months, Bitcoin dominance tends to surge in the summer months, further supporting the potential decline in altcoin valuations against Bitcoin.
• 📉 The dominance of Ethereum (ETH) in relation to Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to decrease significantly in the coming months, with BTC dominance likely to increase.
• 💰 Holding Bitcoin over a long period has been more profitable compared to meme coins and altcoins, Social risk index suggests a potential bottoming out for altcoins, indicating a possible shift in the market cycle.
• ⚠️ Alt seasons are short-lived, followed by extended periods of altcoin bleeding, Predicts a 40% drop in altcoin valuation, Emphasizes the dominance of Bitcoin in the market, Encourages caution and subscription for more insights.

Q&A

• What does the speaker predict for the future of altcoins against Bitcoin?

  The speaker predicts a continued devaluation of altcoins against Bitcoin, emphasizing that alt seasons are short-lived and followed by a prolonged period of altcoin bleeding. They foresee a 40% drop in altcoin valuation and advise caution going into the summer. Additionally, the speaker expects the dominance of Bitcoin to continue and encourages viewers to subscribe for more insights.

• Why is holding Bitcoin considered more profitable than meme coins and altcoins?

  Holding Bitcoin over a long period has been more profitable compared to meme coins and altcoins, especially given the steady increase in Bitcoin dominance, indicating the devaluation of altcoins against Bitcoin pairs. Additionally, the social risk index suggests a potential bottoming out for altcoins, hinting at a possible shift in the market cycle.

• How is Ethereum's dominance expected to change in the coming months?

  ETH dominance is expected to decrease in May and June due to a breakdown in valuation against BTC, leading to an increase in BTC dominance. The altcoin market, particularly altcoin valuations against Bitcoin, is still experiencing a significant downturn. Viewers are advised to exercise caution for altcoin investments, considering BTC dominance and valuation against Bitcoin as crucial factors.

• What is the speaker's stance on Bitcoin and altcoin pairs?

  The speaker has maintained a bearish stance on all Bitcoin pairs for the past two and a half years due to monetary policy. They predict that Bitcoin dominance will continue to rise, possibly reaching 60-64%. The speaker also suggests a high probability for a drop in all Bitcoin pairs over the next few weeks, with altcoins likely to bleed against Bitcoin, potentially affecting the entire altcoin market over the macro scale.

• What does the pattern of new lows and subsequent rallies indicate for Bitcoin and altcoins?

  The pattern of new lows and subsequent rallies for Bitcoin and altcoins resembles the last cycle, suggesting a potential final capitulation for all Bitcoin pairs in the summer. This pattern, along with historical trends, indicates a potential significant decline in altcoin valuations against Bitcoin during the summer months, as seen in previous years.

• What is the altcoin Reckoning?

  The altcoin Reckoning refers to the ongoing devaluation of altcoins against Bitcoin on their Bitcoin pairs. Historical data suggests that factors such as lower interest rates and a shift from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing marked the end of previous altcoin Reckonings, but these have not yet occurred in the current market. Despite some individual altcoins performing well, the collective trend shows devaluation.

• 00:00 The altcoin Reckoning is ongoing as altcoins continue to devalue against Bitcoin. Historical patterns suggest that various factors, including interest rates and quantitative easing, mark the end of the altcoin Reckoning, neither of which have occurred. Despite some individual altcoins performing well, the collective trend shows devaluation.
• 07:28 Bitcoin and various altcoins are putting in new lows against Bitcoin, indicating a potential final capitulation for all Bitcoin pairs in the summer. The pattern of new lows and subsequent rallies resembles the last cycle, suggesting a similar outcome. Altcoins might experience a significant decline in their Bitcoin valuations going into the summer months, as seen in previous years.
• 14:30 The speaker has been bearish on all Bitcoin pairs for the past two and a half years due to monetary policy, and predicts that Bitcoin dominance will continue to go up, possibly hitting 60-64%. They believe that altcoins will likely bleed against Bitcoin, with a high probability for a drop over the next few weeks, and suggests that altcoin market as a whole may be collectively bleeding against Bitcoin over the macro scale.
• 22:05 The dominance of Ethereum (ETH) in relation to Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to decrease significantly in the coming months, with BTC dominance likely to increase. The altcoin market, particularly altcoin valuations against Bitcoin, is still experiencing a significant downturn. Caution is advised for altcoin investments, as BTC dominance and valuation against Bitcoin are important factors to consider.
• 29:32 Bitcoin dominance has been consistently increasing, indicating the devaluation of altcoins against Bitcoin. Holding Bitcoin has been more profitable than meme coins and altcoins, especially in the long term. Social risk index suggests a potential bottoming out for altcoins.
• 36:22 The speaker predicts a continued devaluation of altcoins against Bitcoin, emphasizing that alt seasons are short-lived and followed by a prolonged period of altcoin bleeding. They foresee a 40% drop in altcoin valuation and advise caution going into the summer. The dominance of Bitcoin is expected to continue, and the speaker encourages viewers to subscribe for more insights.