Key insights

• ⏳ The stock-to-flow model for Bitcoin's price remains consistent despite minor adjustments.
• 📈 Minor parameter change (from 4 to 0.25) due to disregarding Satoshi coins, but main parameter (power three) and results remain unchanged.
• 💰 Predictions for next cycles (50k, half a million, 4 million) stay consistent.
• 📊 Change in calculation method results in a more stable price line, with a significant value jump around Bitcoin halving in the stock-to-flow model.
• 🔄 Bitcoin market cycle showing a lag before a value rise, with RSI comparable to levels in 2012 and 2017.
• 📈 Expectation for the next year is an increase in RSI value and a rise in Bitcoin value.
• 🐂 China's mining ban caused a significant drop in Bitcoin's network performance, but the 200-week moving average is expected to rise, signaling a potential start of a new bull market cycle.
• 📈 Anticipated increase in Bitcoin's price to hit 100,000 level soon, with comparison of realized price trends and observation of the femon real realized price as a support level for bull market dips.

Q&A

• What is the future outlook for Bitcoin's price, and how does it relate to historical patterns and hodlers' profits?

  Bitcoin is projected to remain above $64,000 based on historical price movements, with current market patterns being comparable to the start of a bull market in 2016. Additionally, 93% of Bitcoin hodlers are currently in profit, suggesting a positive future outlook.

• What is the focus of the analysis and predictions regarding Bitcoin's price movement?

  The analysis and predictions focus on anticipating a bullish market for Bitcoin, with an anticipated increase in price to reach the 100,000 level soon. This is based on comparing current trends with historical data and observing the femon real realized price as a support level for potential bull market dips.

• How was Bitcoin's bull market impacted, and what are the indicators of a potential new bull market cycle?

  Bitcoin's bull market was impacted by China's mining ban, causing a drop in the network's performance. However, the 200-week moving average for Bitcoin is currently at 36,000 and is expected to rise, signaling a potential start of a new bull market cycle. Historical trends also suggest that bull markets typically start after Bitcoin's halving.

• What does the speaker discuss about the Bitcoin market cycle and its future expectations?

  The speaker highlights a lag in the Bitcoin market cycle before a rise in value, with the RSI showing a comparable increase to levels in 2012 and 2017. Expectations for the next year include an increase in RSI value and a rise in Bitcoin's value.

• What changes were made to the stock-to-flow model, and how have they affected its predictions?

  Minor adjustments were made to the stock-to-flow model, mainly changing the power from 4 to 0.25 due to disregarding Satoshi coins. Despite this change, the main parameter, power three, and the results for the next cycles (50k, half a million, 4 million) remain consistent. The adjustment in calculation method has resulted in a more stable price line.

• What does the stock-to-flow model predict for Bitcoin's price after the halving?

  The stock-to-flow model predicts a pump in Bitcoin's price after the halving, based on historical cycles. The model has been refitted with new data, but the main parameter, power three, and the results remain consistent. It anticipates significant value jumps around the halving of Bitcoin.

• 00:00 Bitcoin is expected to pump after the halving based on the stock to flow model, which has been refitted with new data showing consistent parameters.
• 01:30 The stock-to-flow model for Bitcoin's price remains consistent despite minor adjustments. The main parameter, power three, and the results remain unchanged. The prediction for the next cycle is still half a million, and the cycle after that is 4 million. The change in calculation method has resulted in a more stable price line. The stock-to-flow model shows a significant value jump around the halving of Bitcoin.
• 03:01 The speaker discusses the Bitcoin market cycle, indicating a lag before a rise in value. RSI has increased and is comparable to levels in 2012 and 2017. Expectation for the next year is an increase in RSI value and a rise in Bitcoin value.
• 04:33 Bitcoin's bull market was impacted by China's mining ban, causing a drop in the network's performance. The 200-week moving average for Bitcoin is currently at 36,000 and is expected to rise in the future, signaling a potential start of a new bull market cycle.
• 06:04 Analysis and predictions of Bitcoin price movement, comparing current trends with historical data to anticipate a bullish market.
• 07:51 Bitcoin is expected to remain above $64,000, with historical patterns indicating bullish market trends. Hodlers are currently in profit, suggesting positive future outlook.