Key insights

• ⬆️ New all-time high in December but not a new monthly close all-time high
• 📈 Expect many more months with all-time highs in 2025
• 📈 RSI currently above 50, indicating an uptrend
• 🐂 Prediction of many months in 2025 with an RSI of 80 plus, indicating a bullish trend
• 📊 200-week moving average key for Bitcoin price
• 🔄 Discrepancies in stock-to-flow model predictions for different years
• 📈 Realized price at 71, up from 64 in November, indicating a sharp increase
• 💰 Stock to flow model predicts average price of 500 by 2024-2028

Q&A

• What are the average price predictions for Bitcoin over the next four years?

  The average price over the next four years is estimated to be around 250k to 1 million. The stock to flow model predicts a higher average price compared to other models, acknowledging that models are simplifications of reality.

• How does the realized price relate to Bitcoin's price movements?

  The realized price represents the cost base of Bitcoin that moved on chain. It shoots up in bull markets, diverging from the moving average, and is currently at 71, indicating a sharp increase from 64 in November. The moving average, on the other hand, is more relevant in bear markets as it acts as a floor.

• What is the significance of the 200-week moving average and the stock-to-flow model?

  The 200-week moving average is a key indicator for Bitcoin price, and the stock-to-flow model predicts the 200-week moving average at the end of a halving period. However, the discussion highlights discrepancies in the model's predictions for different years.

• What does the current RSI indicate about Bitcoin's price trend?

  The RSI is currently above 50, suggesting an uptrend. While it's not at 80 plus, signaling a steep upward slope, the prediction anticipates many months in 2025 with an RSI of 80 plus, indicating a bullish trend.

• What metrics are being analyzed in relation to Bitcoin's price?

  The analysis includes Bitcoin price, RSI (Relative Strength Index), moving averages, realized price, and stock to flow model.

• What is the forecast for Bitcoin price in 2025?

  The forecast suggests that there will be many more months with all-time highs in 2025, based on historical patterns of new all-time highs leading to more all-time highs.

• 00:01 Bitcoin price saw a new all-time high in December but not a new monthly close all-time high. Historically, new all-time highs in price lead to more all-time highs. Expect to see many more months with all-time highs in 2025. We analyze closing values of five metrics including Bitcoin price, RSI, moving average, realized price, and stock to flow.
• 01:39 The RSI is currently above 50 but not at 80 plus, indicating an uptrend. The big question is whether there will be a steep upward slope or a continuous slight increase in the price line. The speaker believes there will be many months in 2025 with an RSI of 80 plus, indicating a bullish trend.
• 03:29 The speaker discusses the 200-week moving average and the stock-to-flow model for Bitcoin price prediction, highlighting the discrepancies in the model's predictions for different years.
• 05:02 Bitcoin price is currently at 93,000, far above the 200-day moving average of 43,000, which is more relevant in bear markets. The realized price, the cost base of Bitcoin that moved on chain, is increasing sharply, currently at 71, up from 64 in November.
• 06:36 The realized price shoots up in bull markets and diverges from the moving average. The stock to flow model predicts an average price of 500 by 2024-2028.
• 08:25 Bitcoin's average price over the next four years is estimated to be around 250k to 1 million, with the stock to flow model predicting a higher average compared to other models.