Key insights

• Motivations, Timing, and Resilience

  • 🏛️ Russia's promotion of a 19th-century order in Europe
  • 🌍 Territorial implications of post-World War II order
  • 🔍 Putin's multifaceted motivations for actions in Ukraine
  • 💪 Ukraine's resilience and unexpected strength as a state
  • 🕒 Speculation on the timing of the invasion and its potential relation to domestic and international events

• Compromise, Commitments, and Strategic Importance

  • ⚖️ Compromise between EU and US led to unclear commitments and signaling failure
  • ⚠️ Unclear commitments contributed to Russia's attack on Ukraine
  • 🎯 West's strategy towards Ukraine and Russia's potential goals
  • ⚔️ Strategic importance of Ukraine, Baltics, and Poland
  • 🗺️ Historical border tendencies of Russia based on military presence

• Future Scenarios and Western Approach

  • ⚔️ Politics and nationalist outbidding could lead to aggressive actions in the future
  • 🧳 Putin lacks understanding of Ukrainian identity and may resort to massive population movement if Ukraine is occupied
  • 🌍 Concerns about potential refugee crisis and western split if Ukraine is occupied
  • 💬 Discussion on the Western approach to Russia and Ukraine, including the impact of sanctions and Nord Stream

• Long-term Peace and Insecurity Concerns

  • 🔁 Patterns of repeated wars between the same countries
  • 🕰️ Difference between enduring peace and temporary peace
  • 💔 Lack of trust undermines peace agreements
  • 🎚️ Russia's intentions impact ceasefire stability
  • ⚠️ Ongoing insecurity between Russia and Ukraine as a long-term concern

• Analysis of Invasion, War Aims, and Western Support

  • ⚔️ Russia's rationality in invading Crimea and parts of Ukraine
  • 🔄 Shifts in Ukrainian identity and sentiments post-2014
  • 🎯 Putin's strategy and potential war aims
  • ❓ Uncertainties around ceasefire and territorial resolution
  • 🤝 Western support for Ukraine and the impact on the ongoing war

• Geopolitical Struggle and Ukraine's Alignment with the West

  • 🌐 Geopolitical struggle between EU, Russia, and Ukraine
  • 🔷 Complex decisions regarding democracy in Ukraine
  • ⬅️ Ukraine's alignment with the West despite Russian pressure
  • 🚩 Russia's dissatisfaction with Ukraine's movement towards the West influencing the invasion of 2022

• Factors Contributing to Conflict and War

  • ⚠️ Perceived loss by Russia led to risk-taking behavior
  • 🌍 War in Yugoslavia influenced NATO expansion
  • 🏛️ Domestic politics in Russia and the US shaped their stance on Russia and Ukraine
  • 🔄 Ukraine's multivector foreign policy
  • 💰 Economic impacts of EU expansion on Ukraine

• Key Points on Causes and Chronological Events

  • 💡 Emphasizes Russia's dissatisfaction with the post-Cold War status quo
  • 🔍 Highlights the complexities of post-Cold War security in Europe
  • 🔄 Demonstrates the interaction of domestic politics and geopolitics
  • ❌ Debunks the idea that NATO enlargement was the sole cause of the conflict
  • 📅 Traces the debate over the status of Ukraine back to 1991

Q&A

• What motives and perceptions about Ukraine are discussed?

  The speaker discusses Russia's motives and perceptions about Ukraine, the territorial and order implications, the timing of the invasion, and Ukraine's resilience. He also mentions the complexity of Putin's motivations and the role of domestic and international factors in the decision-making process.

• How did the compromise between the EU and US contribute to Russia's attack on Ukraine?

  The compromise resulted in a signaling failure, unclear commitments, and contributed to Russia's attack on Ukraine. The discussion also involves Putin's potential goals and considerations, Ukraine's strategic importance, and historical border tendencies of Russia.

• What are the concerns about potential future actions by Putin?

  The speaker discusses the possibility of Putin taking aggressive actions in the future due to politics, nationalist outbidding, and a lack of understanding of Ukrainian identity. There are concerns about potential massive population movement, refugee crisis, and western split if Ukraine is occupied by Russia. Additionally, the Western approach to Russia and Ukraine is also a topic of consideration.

• What are the concerns about long-term insecurity between Russia and Ukraine?

  The 100 Years War and international conflict patterns show repeated wars between the same countries. The speaker discusses the enduring peace different from temporary peace, lack of trust undermining peace agreements, and how Russia's intentions impact ceasefire stability, highlighting ongoing insecurity between Russia and Ukraine as a long-term concern.

• What are some implications of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine?

  The speaker discusses Russia's perspective on the 2014 invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war, implications for the future, Putin's war aims and territorial strategy, uncertainties around ceasefire, and the Western support for Ukraine.

• What led to Ukraine's decision to align with the West despite Russian pressure?

  The geopolitical struggle between the EU, Russia, and Ukraine led to complex decisions regarding democracy. Ultimately, Ukraine chose to align with the West despite Russian pressure, leading to the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, influenced by Russia's dissatisfaction with Ukraine's movement towards the West.

• What factors influenced the war in Ukraine?

  Perceived loss by Russia led to risk-taking behavior, the war in Yugoslavia influenced NATO expansion, and domestic politics in Russia and the US shaped their stance on Russia and Ukraine.

• What is the book 'Russia and Ukraine from Civilized Divorce to Uncivil War' about?

  The book explores the causes of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, emphasizing Russia's dissatisfaction with the post-Cold War status quo, the complexities of post-Cold War security in Europe, and the interaction of domestic politics and geopolitics. It provides a chronological rendering of events from 1990 to 2021, debunking the idea that NATO enlargement was the sole cause of the conflict and highlights the debate over the status of Ukraine dating back to 1991.

• 00:00 Dr. Paul Daer discusses his book 'Russia and Ukraine from Civilized Divorce to Uncivil War' which explores the causes of the conflict, emphasizing Russia's dissatisfaction with the post-Cold War status quo, the complexities of post-Cold War security in Europe, and the interaction of domestic politics and geopolitics. The book provides a chronological rendering of events from 1990 to 2021, highlighting the importance of history and debunking the idea that NATO enlargement was the sole cause of the conflict. It demonstrates that the debate over the status of Ukraine dates back to 1991, with even Russian liberals initially opposing Ukraine's separation from Russia.
• 07:26 The perceived loss by Russia led to risk-taking, the war in Yugoslavia influenced NATO expansion, and domestic politics in Russia and the US shaped their stance on Russia and Ukraine.
• 15:29 The geopolitical struggle between the EU, Russia, and Ukraine led to complex decisions regarding democracy, with Ukraine ultimately choosing to align with the West despite Russian pressure. The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was influenced by Russia's dissatisfaction with Ukraine's movement towards the West.
• 22:34 Analyzing Russia's perspective on the 2014 invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war, implications for the future, Putin's war aims and territorial strategy, uncertainties around ceasefire, and the Western support for Ukraine.
• 29:45 The 100 Years War and international conflict patterns show repeated wars between the same countries. Enduring peace is different from temporary peace. Peace agreements are undermined by lack of trust. Russia's intentions impact ceasefire stability. Ongoing insecurity between Russia and Ukraine is a long-term concern.
• 36:53 The speaker discusses the possibility of Putin taking aggressive actions in the future due to politics, nationalist outbidding, and a lack of understanding of Ukrainian identity. There are concerns about potential massive population movement, refugee crisis, and western split if Ukraine is occupied by Russia. The Western approach to Russia and Ukraine is also a topic of consideration.
• 44:20 The EU and US compromise resulted in a signaling failure, unclear commitments led to Russia's attack, Putin's potential goals and considerations, Ukraine's strategic importance, and historical border tendencies of Russia.
• 52:07 The speaker discusses Russia's motives and perceptions about Ukraine, the territorial and order implications, the timing of the invasion, and Ukraine's resilience. He also mentions the complexity of Putin's motivations and the role of domestic and international factors in the decision-making process.