Climate Model Uncertainty & Temperature Anomalies: A Critical Discussion
Key insights
- ⚗️ Climate scientists use temperature anomalies rather than absolute temperatures, which can vary depending on the baseline, to account for scientific uncertainty and to compare data from different models.
- 🌡️ Climate models struggle to predict absolute temperatures accurately, showing significant variations and often being way off observations. Scientists rely on relative temperatures due to the models' inability to accurately predict absolute temperatures.
- ⚠️ The speaker has concerns about the disagreement between climate models and believes that the physical basis of the models may be flawed. They also criticize the method of calculating uncertainty in the projections.
- 📹 The speaker highlights the risk of underestimating the energy transition and expresses doubt about the existence of thorough plans. Growing up brings the realization that nobody truly knows what they're doing. The speaker feels the need to address these concerns through a video.
- 🔒 NordVPN ensures ultra-secure internet connections, protects from malware trackers and malicious ads, and allows access to servers worldwide to bypass location-based content restrictions.
Q&A
What are the features of NordVPN mentioned in the video?
NordVPN ensures ultra-secure internet connections, protects from malware trackers and malicious ads, and allows access to servers worldwide to bypass location-based content restrictions.
What doubts does the speaker express about energy transition?
The speaker highlights the risk of underestimating the energy transition and expresses doubt about the existence of thorough plans. They also express the realization that nobody truly knows what they're doing and the need to address these concerns through a video.
What are the concerns raised by the speaker about climate models?
The speaker has concerns about the disagreement between climate models and believes that the physical basis of the models may be flawed. They also criticize the method of calculating uncertainty in the projections.
Why do climate scientists rely on relative temperatures instead of absolute temperatures?
Climate models struggle to predict absolute temperatures accurately, showing significant variations and often being way off observations. Scientists rely on relative temperatures due to the models' inability to accurately predict absolute temperatures.
Why do climate scientists use temperature anomalies instead of absolute temperatures?
Climate scientists use temperature anomalies, deviation from a baseline, to account for scientific uncertainty. Using anomalies allows for the comparison of data across different models and time periods, addressing variations caused by different baselines.
What does the figure in the video show?
The figure in question shows projections for future temperature increases based on fossil fuel emissions, using calculations from multiple climate models. The uncertainty ranges are depicted through shaded areas and bars on the right.
- 00:00 Climate scientists often avoid discussing certain topics, such as hidden details in familiar figures. The figure in question shows projections for future temperature increases based on fossil fuel emissions, using calculations from multiple climate models. The uncertainty ranges are depicted through shaded areas and bars on the right.
- 01:00 Climate scientists use temperature anomalies rather than absolute temperatures, which can vary depending on the baseline, to account for scientific uncertainty and to compare data from different models.
- 01:55 Climate models struggle to predict absolute temperatures accurately, showing significant variations and often being way off observations. Scientists rely on relative temperatures due to the models' inability to accurately predict absolute temperatures.
- 02:54 The speaker has concerns about the disagreement between climate models and believes that the physical basis of the models may be flawed. They also criticize the method of calculating uncertainty in the projections.
- 03:46 The speaker highlights the risk of underestimating the energy transition and expresses doubt about the existence of thorough plans. Growing up brings the realization that nobody truly knows what they're doing. The speaker feels the need to address these concerns through a video.
- 04:42 Stay secure and access blocked content with NordVPN, providing ultra-secure internet connections, protection from malware trackers, and access to servers worldwide.